NASHVILLE, TN – We can expect to see new variants of coronavirus but they won’t be like the old ones, according to a leading virologist. “It’s certain,” said Dr. Ben Neuman at the Global Health Research Complex at Texas A&M University.
“For a while the virus was getting better at jumping from one person to another,” Neuman said. It reminded him of the story of the tortoise and the hare. The early variants ran very fast and very far. But he said that as people built up immunity to them, it became impossible for them to grow.
“The Delta variant, which is the last of the early viruses, has effectively gone extinct worldwide. It is only the tortoises that are left,” Neuman said.
Variants like Omicron and BA.2 are the new coronavirus tortoises. “Think of them as being armored. They are not particularly fast, although they can spread in new ways. They can spread to people who have some immunity already. And that is the concern,” Neuman said.
China and Europe have seen spikes of omicron and BA.2 in recent weeks. Hospitalizations are still low here in the U.S. although on April 2 the CDC announced the BA.2 variant is now the dominant strain.
“The immunity we build is temporary. It has a window. It ticks down until you are no longer protected. As time goes on it becomes less likely whatever protection we have will actually stand up against the new variants,” Neuman said.
Omicron and the BA.2 variant are between six and eight times more likely to infect someone who has some immunity from an earlier infection or vaccine. Meanwhile, mask mandates have ended and children are back in school and some complacency about the virus has set in.
“The virus is changing because we are putting it in a bad spot. We are forcing it to change. I see a lot of progress but we are definitely not done yet,” Neuman said.
The CDC approved a second booster for seniors last month. The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines work on the new variants but not as well as they did on the older variants like Delta. Researchers are testing new vaccines on the new variants. Neuman said the new ones work well on monkeys, mice, and hamsters. No word on humans, yet.
Is a new wave coming?
Nobody knows if the pandemic, now like a low-burning flame, will break out into a raging fire. We also don’t know if will see closures and mask mandates once again.
“Back a few months ago our peak was 142 (patients); today we have 7, so the newest wave has not hit the hospital yet,” said Dr. Dali Fan, Health Science Clinical Professor at UC Davis in central California.
“Obviously the vaccinated ones are the most protected and the unvaccinated ones are the most vulnerable,” Fan said. Your immunity has waned if you got your second shot or booster several months ago.
“If the case load in the community is higher, then obviously everyone’s vulnerability is higher,” Fan said. We need to be prepared because nobody knows for sure what will happen next.
“In terms of vulnerability we have to look at vaccinated versus unvaccinated,” said Dr. Manisha Newaskar, a Pediatric Pulmonologist at Stanford Children’s Health.
“In the previous surges it was very clear, especially also in pediatric populations, children who were unvaccinated were at much higher risk for getting hospitalized compared to the vaccinated ones. So vaccination does protect you from serious infection, especially hospital admission, ICU, ventilator dependence, and all that,” she said.
Newaskar said that children with severe asthma, cancer, who are obese, or have some other condition that limits their ability to mount an immune response to the coronavirus are most at risk.
“So taking care of your underlying medical condition is really important and getting vaccinated,” she said.
“Our job is to protect ourselves, and our families, and community by doing the right thing, which is getting vaccinated and doing the best we can under the circumstances,” Newaskar said.
To stay up to date on vaccines visit: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html
To get a free mask go to: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/free-masks.html or call 1-800-232-0233.
