Though they’ve only played eight games to date, the Tennessee Titans are already looking towards next year. They’re certainly not going to say that with nine games remaining on the schedule, five of the final seven at home. They’re also still mathematically in the playoff race, though realistically at 3-5, they’d need to win at least seven and maybe eight of the last nine to have a shot. Jacksonville is already three games ahead in the division race, and they show no signs of fading over the second half. But more importantly, the Titans have yet to win on the road, or even put together consecutive victories. Aside from kicker Nick Folk, who’s enjoying a monster season, there’s really no one on the Titans who’s been consistently productive throughout the year.
So the twin questions for the team are how will they finish the year and what record will they have. Even winning five of nine leaves them with an 8-9 finish, and they’ll be in the upper half of the draft order, but not near the top. No one, certainly not head coach Mike Vrabel or general manager Ran Carthon has even remotely suggested that they throw in the towel (tank to use the current in-vogue term) and just lose out to get a higher draft choice.
But at the same time, there are signs they’re certainly looking to the future. The first was the trading of stalwart defensive leader Kevin Byard to the Eagles. Whether he’d been playing at an All-Pro level or not the last couple of seasons, he was still the unquestioned captain of the secondary, and an overall voice everyone on the team respected and listened to whenever he spoke. That they chose to unload him for whatever reason, on top of forcing him to take a questionable salary cut before the season began, was an indication they wanted additional draft picks and knew he was one of the few assets they had which other teams were willing to include draft choices as part of a deal.
A second indicator, although Vrabel continues to play it cagey publicly, is the elevation of second round draft choice QB Will Levis. After his masterful four-touchdown debut, he didn’t do quite as well against Pittsburgh, but still had a respectable game despite the late interception at the goal line. It really looks like Levis is going to be the team’s QB moving forward. Ryan Tannehill is in the last year of his contract, coming off another injury, and his status was already in limbo before Levis’ debut. Now it seems obvious Tannehill and the Titans will part company after the season. Tannehill has had his moments, even winning the NFL Comeback Player of the Year one season. But he’s never been quite the same since the Titans dropped that playoff shocker to the Bengals, and he’s now had injury problems two straight seasons. It really wouldn’t make much sense at this point for the Titans to even consider giving him another contract unless he were willing to (1) take a bare bones deal, and (2) be a backup. At this stage of his NFL career, it’s highly doubtful either proposition would be to Tannehill’s liking.
Another player whose status is murky at best is running back Derrick Henry. Here it’s not so much a question of productivity as one of age and money. Henry’s contract also runs out this season, and he’s already indicated he wants at least one more big-money deal. Given the continually lowering market for high use running backs, plus the fact the Titans have already drafted a potential replacement in Tyjae Spears and are already splitting the workload, it looks like Henry will also be moving on after the season. The Titans chose not to move him during the trading deadline, and he’s proceeding at a pace that will bring him at least another 1,000-yard and possible 1,200-1,300 yard season. But beyond that, it will be a surprise if he’s back with the Titans in 2024.
The same is true for QB Malik Willis, although in his case keeping him could be justified because it was quite apparent when he was drafted that he would be a long-term project. Willis has reportedly improved since last season, but during his brief moments in the lineup he’s continued to have problems with holding the ball too long and running the offense. Whether the Titans choose to retain him and continue the development process or move on and let him try his luck with another team is uncertain.
Carthon’s seen enough this season to recognize that the Titans have serious systemic problems. The offensive line remains in flux and erratic. The big off-season acquisition of Andre Dillard has not worked well, especially when he’s been matched against premier defensive linemen. Rookie Peter Skoronski has played well when healthy, but he’s been in and out of the lineup due to injury problems. The Titans continue to have major problems scoring touchdowns on the road, and once again only had one against Pittsburgh. Two touchdowns might have won both the Saints and Steelers games, and then you’re looking at a 5-3 team instead of a 3-5 one. Carthon knows he must do extensive rebuilding on the offensive line, no matter the QB next season.
A second major area of concern is the secondary, where once more the Titans are near the bottom in several categories, especially giving up big pass plays. They’ve got to get better coverage corners, and in particular not be so susceptible to long passes in critical situations. The last few games the run defense, which was once tops in the league, has also been shredded by teams, another reason why they lost to the Colts and Steelers.
How much of this can be addressed in the draft remains to be seen, but it’s pretty clear there needs to be emphasis placed on improving these areas if the Titans want to become title contenders again. Meanwhile, it will be quite interesting to see how they fare over the rest of the season, and in particular the next two road games. Win two and there’s a glimmer of hope at 5-5 returning home. A split and things don’t look much better at 4-6. Lose both and it will be hard to work up fan enthusiasm for a 3-7 team, even one playing five games at home through the last part of the season.
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