NASHVILLE, TN – Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are centered around a 15-point peace plan that would stop the Russian bombardments, initiate a ceasefire, and require Russian forces to withdraw back across the border.
The Financial Times of London first reported on Wednesday the news of a possible breakthrough in the talks between the two countries. Ukraine would agree not join NATO and Russia wants security guarantees from the West that they won’t arm Ukraine to the teeth. Short of supplying jet fighters, they are doing that now. The Times reported Ukraine has promised not to allow any foreign military bases in the country. In short, Ukraine would become neutral like Switzerland.
The international community has not recognized the two self-proclaimed rebel republics of Donetsk and Luhansk but Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized their independence on February 21, 2022. Russia provided arms to the rebels there after it took over the Crimea in 2014. More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting in the area between Ukraine’s army and the Moscow-based separatists.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled the industrial region bordering the Black Sea in SE Ukraine could become autonomous if a majority of the residents approved it in a referendum. The area produces a lot of steel and mines coal. What might happen with the Crimea is anybody’s guess but Zelensky wants the Russians gone from there, too. That is unlikely to happen unless Ukraine defeats Russian forces decisively and drives them back into Russia, also unlikely.
What is absent in the talks, so far, is a representative from the United States. In Putin’s view, the Americans are trying to surround him with NATO allies and we have provoked a proxy war to destabilize his regime in Moscow.
Geo-politically speaking, President Joe Biden is sitting in the catbird’s seat. His approval ratings are up, support for Ukraine in Congress is uncharacteristically bi-partisan, and pretty much the whole world has condemned the Russian invasion. People like Republican Senator Tom Cotton from Arkansas is asking why Biden hasn’t allowed Poland to beef up Ukraine’s air force. Defense hawks like Cotton think it could turn the course of the war in Ukraine’s favor.
Perhaps it would. The threat of nuclear war is what has stayed NATO and Biden’s hand on the question of air support. A more cynical view is this: why should the U.S. get more involved when we can sit back and watch both sides slug it out from the sidelines?
The Tribune has reported Zelensky’s willingness to accommodate Russia’s major concern for “feeling safe” even in the face of its disregard for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Ukraine’s diehard desire for the same thing.
The big picture does not look good. Germany and Finland among others are sending weapons to Ukraine. The U.S. has sent troops and is beefing up armaments in NATO countries. For the first time since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, Europe is preparing for war.
China is watching.
