The following commentary was submitted by

Black American population growth assumes
more than just economic significance at this
crucial point in the US population’s
browning. To the extent that the Black
American population can account for an
increasing share of the total, then Black
Americans can vie for increasing roles in all
socioeconomic aspects of the nation based on
“representativeness” alone.1
However, Black individual and Black
national aspirations may conflict. Current
and expected future adverse life prospects for
Black Americans may deter prospective
parents from a procreation decision.
2 On the
other hand and from a Black nation
perspective, an opportunity to gain increased
future economic and political power in the
country is linked directly to advancing

Before exploring the current state of Black
American population growth, it is important
to consider how our population has evolved
over the past several decades. For the 1950s,

the Black American population increased at
an average annual rate of 2.21 percent; for the
1960s it grew 1.82 percent; for the 1970s, it
grew 1.63 percent; for the 1980s it grew 1.28
percent; for the 1990s it grew 1.41 percent (a
slight acceleration); for the first decade of the
current millennium it grew 1.17 percent; and
for the second decade of the 21st century, it
grew just 0.55 percent.3 Unfortunately,
decelerating Black population growth rates
may continue to be in our future.
Provisional data from the National Vital
Statistics System (NVSS) of the US Center
for Disease Control (CDC) this week showed
that births for Non-Hispanic Black American
women declined 2.4% (517,027) in 2021
from 2020 (529,811).
Also slowing population growth, NonHispanic Black American deaths increased
about 1.6 percent in 2019 (348,761) from
2018 (343,393); representing developments
during the two most recent years that were
unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic.5

In addition, according to the National Center
for Health Statistics (NCHS), age-adjusted
death rates increased for both Black males
(28.0 percent) and females (24.9 percent)
from 2019 to 2020—i.e., during the first year
of the pandemic (the increase for the nation
was 16.8 percent).
Continued combined declines in births and
increases in deaths can ultimately result in
declines in the Black American population.7
A realization of such an outcome is at
variance with the “Great Replacement
Theory” (GRT).8 Obviously, Black
Americans should view the GRT as a reverse
psychology ploy by White extremists. They
assert the GRT, while engaging in the
opposite behavior—acting to decrease the
Black population.
Consequently, it is logical for Black
Americans to give credence to a Great
Elimination Theory (GET). There is little-tono evidence that Black Americans are
engaged in efforts to replace White
Americans, but there is voluminous evidence
that efforts are underway to reduce and, in the
extreme case, eliminate the Black American
As we keep our heads down being attuned to
the everyday course of life and consideration
of our individual selves, we may be ignoring
our contributing role in the future
decline/elimination of the Black American
Before we go down this road further, we
should awaken to our actions and confirm
that we are not in agreement with a decline
in, or elimination of, our population. We
should comprehend that the rate at which we
procreate and decease will certainly
determine Black America’s future existence.
Therefore, we should take every action to
ensure that a GET remains unrealized.

1 has forecasted the Black
American population out to 2050 here (Ret. 052522).
It is understandable that potential parents might
decide not to procreate so that their offspring do not
face a life of poverty or experience the harsh realities
of racial discrimination.
3 These average annual growth rates are derived from
US Department of Commerce, Census Bureau
statistics. We multiplied the total US population from
decennial censuses by the Black Alone population (as

applicable) percentage, and then computed intercensus average annual growth rates.
4 These statistics are from Table 2 of the May 2022
NVSS Report (No. 20), which can be obtained here
(Ret. 052522).
5 These statistics are from Table 1 of NVSS’ National
Vital Statistics Report Vol. 70, No. 8 (July 26, 2021),
which can be found here (Ret. 052522). The statistics
are bridged from the 1977 to the 1997 OMB

6 See Figure 2 in the NCHS Data Brief, No. 427,
December 2021 here (Ret. 052522).
7 Growth in the Black American Alone population is
affected by, but may not be limited to, the following
factors: (i) Amalgamation through interracial
marriage; (ii) prison terms that prevent us from
multiplying; (iii) purposeful racial discrimination
against Black males that creates inequality between
Black males and females, who decide to not be
unequally yoked (married) and, thereby, fail to
produce offspring; (iv) lifestyle choices that result in

same-sex couples that produce no offspring; (v) poor
health conditions for Black females who conceive
and experience prenatal deaths or premature births
that end in death; (vi) abortions; (vii) police murders;
(viii) murder at the hands of Blacks or others; (ix)
suicides; (x) deaths from increasingly prevalent
natural disasters; (xi) viruses; and (xii) deaths by
other unnatural causes.
8 Dustin Jones of National Public Radio provides a
clear and seemingly unbiased explanation of the GRT
here (Ret. 052522).