Newsweek–Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder’s bid to replace California Governor Gavin Newsom looks doomed to failure as a spate of recent polls suggest the Democrat will beat the recall effort.
Mail-in voting is already under way in a state that’s long been considered a Democratic bastion and two polls published on Monday indicate Newsom will remain in office.
Poll tracker FiveThirtyEight, which has been tracking Newsom’s chances based on analysis of a wide range of polls and its own system of pollster ratings, shows the option to keep the governor polling at an average of 57.3 percent.What Happens to Larry Elder If He Loses the California Recall?Read more What Happens to Larry Elder If He Loses the California Recall?Newsweek Newsletter sign-up >
FiveThirtyEight reports that support for removing Newsom now stands an an average of just 41.5 percent, while individual polls that contribute to the poll tracker’s analysis have also shown similar results.
A SurveyMonkey/Momentive poll conducted between August 30 and September 13 shows 55 percent of voters want to keep Newsom in office compared to 41 percent who want him removed.
That represents a double-digit lead of 14 percent for Newsom. The poll was conducted among 3,985 likely voters and FiveThirtyEight gives the pollster a “C” rating.
A Trafalgar Group poll carried out between September 11 and September 13 shows Newsom beating the recall with 53.3 percent to 44.7 percent, or a lead of more than nine points. The Trafalgar Group enjoys an “A-” rating from FiveThirtyEight and the poll was conducted among 1,082 likely voters.Newsweek subscription offers >
These two polls conducted up to September 13 are not outliers, however. A slew of polling over the last month has shown the Democratic governor beating the recall by a significant margin.
The last poll featured in FiveThirtyEight’s analysis that showed Newsom being removed was conducted by SurveyUSA from August 2 to August 4 among 613 likely voters. That poll showed 51 percent of respondents wanted Newsom removed compared to 40 percent who wanted to keep him in office. FiveThirtyEight gives SurveyUSA an “A” rating.
Elder, a conservative radio host, appears very likely to win the most votes among the 46 replacement candidates vying to succeed Newsom if he is removed from office.
However, Newsom will only lose his job if 50 percent of votes cast say “yes” to the recall effort and based on the most up-to-date polling, that outcome is unlikely. If that does happen, the replacement ballot comes into play.
The governor cannot run as his own replacement and California Democrats have not nominated a backup candidate. If 50 percent of voters decide to recall Newsom, he will be removed from office and the candidate who wins the most votes on the replacement ballot will succeed him.
Elder’s campaign appeared to predict his defeat on Monday as visitors to his official website are now redirected to a page about electoral fraud that says, in part: “Statistical analyses used to detect fraud in elections held in third-world nations (such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran) have detected fraud in California resulting in Governor Gavin Newsom being reinstated as Governor.”
No results for the recall election have yet been announced and voting is not yet finished. Newsom has previously said Elder’s suggestions of voter fraud were an “extension of the Big Lie and ‘Stop the Steal.’“
This story was first reported in Newsweek